Red Sox vs Mets Prediction 5/19/25 MLB Picks Today

The New York Mets and the Boston Red Sox meet Monday in MLB action from Fenway Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Red Sox vs Mets Prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The New York Mets will start Kodai Senga here, and Senga is 4-2 with a 1.02 ERA and 42 strikeouts this season. This will be Senga’s first career start against the Red Sox. Hunter Dobbins will get the start for the Red Sox here and is 2-1 with a 3.90 ERA and 23 strikeouts this season. This will be Dobbins’ first career start against the New York Mets.

New York Mets Recap

The New York Mets come into this game looking to bounce back after ending up on the wrong side of an 8-2 loss at the hands of the New York Yankees in Sunday’s series finale to fall to 29-18 on the year. After this series, the Mets will head home for a marquee series against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Mets Lose Subway Series

Pete Alonso has 52 hits with 16 doubles, 9 home runs, 37 RBIs, and a .301 batting average, while Juan Soto has 41 hits with 9 doubles, 8 home runs, and 20 RBIs on the year. Francisco Lindor has 53 hits with 6 stolen bases along with 8 doubles, 9 home runs, and 28 RBIs, while Mark Vientos has 5 home runs, 18 RBIs, but 37 strikeouts so far this season. Brandon Nimmo has also added 38 hits with 9 doubles and 8 home runs, and 27 RBIs this season. Luis Torrens has also chipped in 8 doubles, and Luisangel Acuna has 10 stolen bases as well this season.

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Mets have won each of their last 15 Monday night games.
• The Red Sox have lost each of their last seven games as underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line each of their last seven night games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mets have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games following a road loss.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Kodai Senga has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his three previous appearances in night games against AL teams that held a losing record.
• Pete Alonso has recorded at least one Single in each of the Mets’ last 11 Monday games.
• Juan Soto has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
• Juan Soto has scored at least one run in each of the Mets’ last six games as road favorites.
• Juan Soto has hit a home run in each of the Mets’ last two night games against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four road appearances against the Red Sox after playing the previous day.
• Tyrone Taylor has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances against AL East opponents.

Boston Red Sox Recap

The Boston Red Sox come into this game looking to bounce back after their 10-4 loss at the hands of the Atlanta Braves in Sunday’s series finale, falling to 23-25 on the year as a result. After this series, the Red Sox will take on the Baltimore Orioles in a divisional series at home.

Red Sox Drop Five Of Their Last Six Games

Alex Bregman leads the Red Sox with 56 hits, including a team-high 16 doubles, along with 11 home runs and 34 RBIs, while Rafael Devers has added 52 hits with 14 doubles, 9 home runs, and 38 RBIs this season. Trevor Story added 41 hits with 6 home runs, 20 RBIs, and 8 stolen bases, while Jarren Duran has 54 hits with 10 doubles, 5 triples, 3 home runs, 27 RBIs, and a team-high 12 stolen bases. Kristian Campbell added 35 hits with 8 doubles, 5 homers, and 15 RBIs while Wilyer Abreu has 11 home runs with 27 RBIs and 4 stolen bases, and Ceddanne Rafaela has 2 homers, 2 triples, 18 RBIs, and 7 stolen bases this season.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The home team has won seven of the last eight games between the Mets and Red Sox.
• The Mets have lost nine of their last 10 night games against American League opponents following a road loss.
• The home team has covered the run line in each of the last eight games between the Mets and Red Sox.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in 14 of their last 15 night games against AL East opponents following a loss.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Rafael Devers has recorded a Double in three of the Red Sox’s last four games against NL East opponents at Fenway Park.
• Rafael Devers has hit a home run in three of the Red Sox’s last four home games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Jarren Duran has recorded a Single in each of the Red Sox’s last eight games against NL East opponents.
• Jarren Duran has scored at least one run in nine of the Red Sox’s last 10 games as underdogs against NL opponents.
• Jarren Duran has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox’s last 13 games against NL East opponents.
• Triston Casas has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four home appearances against NL East opponents.
• Alex Bregman ranks T7th in the league in Hits (56) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• • Each of the Red Sox’s last five night games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
  • Five of the Mets’ last six games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.

Red Sox vs Mets Prediction

I’m looking at the Mets in this one. I get the case to be made for the Red Sox as home dogs, as Hunter Dobbins has been able to provide some quality innings for the Red Sox this season. But I just think he’s going to have a hard time here matching up against Kodai Senga and matching zeroes with the Mets’ ace. I think the Mets get it done here to draw first blood, so give me New York in this one.