Red Sox vs Braves Prediction 5/17/25 MLB Picks Today

The Atlanta Braves and the Boston Red Sox meet Saturday in MLB action from Fenway Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Red Sox vs Braves Prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Atlanta Braves will start Grant Holmes in this one, and Holmes is 2-3 with a 4.14 ERA and 44 strikeouts this season. This will be Holmes’ first career start against the Red Sox. Lucas Giolito will get the start for the Red Sox here and is 1-1 with a 5.51 ERA and 14 strikeouts this season. In his career, Giolito is 0-2 with a 12.10 ERA and 9 strikeouts against Atlanta.

Atlanta Braves Recap

The Atlanta Braves come into this game looking to add on to their 4-2 win over the Red Sox from Friday’s series opener to improve to 23-22 on the year. After this series, the Braves will head on the road for a rematch series against the Nationals.

Braves Finally Above .500

Austin Riley leads the Braves with 52 hits, including 8 home runs, 26 RBIs, and 8 doubles, but also has the dubious distinction of leading Atlanta with 55 strikeouts so far this season. Ozzie Albies has 38 hits with 5 home runs and 16 RBIs in addition to 5 stolen bases, and Matt Olson has 34 hits with 6 doubles, 7 home runs, and 21 RBIs of his own. Marcell Ozuna also has 37 hits with 6 home runs and 18 RBIs. Michael Harris II also has 39 hits with 8 doubles, 3 home runs, and 25 RBIs, and 7 stolen bases as well, and Nick Allen has 5 stolen bases as well this season.

Why the Atlanta Braves will win

• The Braves have won each of their last four games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
• The Red Sox have lost each of their last six night games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Red Sox’s last seven games.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line each of their last six night games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

• Sean Murphy has hit at least one home run in five of his last six appearances with the Braves as road underdogs.
• Sean Murphy has recorded a Double in three of his last four road appearances after playing the previous day.
• Sean Murphy has recorded at least one RBI in five of his last six appearances with the Braves as road underdogs.
• Ozzie Albies has scored at least one run in each of the Braves’ last five games as road underdogs.
• Michael Harris has recorded a Single in each of the Braves’ last seven night games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Ronald Acuna Jr. has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 Saturday appearances with the Braves as underdogs.
• Marcell Ozuna ranks 6th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.410) this season.

Boston Red Sox Recap

The Boston Red Sox come into this game looking to bounce back after their loss to the Braves in Friday’s series opener to fall to 22-24 this season. After this series, the Red Sox will welcome the New York Mets to town for another interleague home series.

Red Sox Lose Fourth Straight

Alex Bregman leads the Red Sox with 55 hits, including a team-high 15 doubles, along with 11 home runs and 33 RBIs, while Rafael Devers has added 47 hits with 12 doubles, 7 home runs, and 32 RBIs this season. Trevor Story added 39 hits with 6 home runs, 19 RBIs, and 8 stolen bases, while Jarren Duran has 49 hits with 10 doubles, 4 triples, 2 home runs, 23 RBIs, and a team-high 11 stolen bases. Kristian Campbell added 35 hits with 8 doubles, 5 homers, and 15 RBIs while Wilyer Abreu has 11 home runs with 27 RBIs and 4 stolen bases, and Ceddanne Rafaela has 2 homers, 2 triples, 18 RBIs, and 7 stolen bases this season.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Braves have lost each of their last six road games against AL East opponents following a road win.
• The Red Sox have won four of their last five games against NL East opponents following a home loss.
• The Braves have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six road games against AL East opponents following a road win.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against teams that held a winning record.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Trevor Story has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a winning record.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six home appearances after playing the previous day.
• Alex Bregman has scored at least one run in each of his last six home appearances against NL opponents.
• Lucas Giolito has recorded six or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances with his team as a favorite.
• Trevor Story has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 17 appearances with his team as a home favorite against NL East opponents.
• Triston Casas has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four home appearances against NL East opponents.
• Masataka Yoshida has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with the Red Sox as favorites against NL opponents.
• Alex Bregman ranks T5th in the league in Hits (55) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Braves’ last seven road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Seven of the last eight games between the Braves and Red Sox have gone UNDER the total runs line.

Red Sox vs Braves Prediction

I’m on the Braves in this game. I get that the Red Sox still have a solid lineup and Giolito looked good last time out, but the thing is that he was rocked in his first start at Fenway. The Braves are a team that’s playing with some confidence right now. Grant Holmes isn’t my favorite option in this Braves’ rotation, but I think he and the Braves’ bullpen will be good enough to get the win here. Give me Atlanta.