Padres vs Mariners Prediction 5/17/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Padres vs Mariners prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, May 17, at PETCO Park in San Diego, California. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

The Seattle Mariners (24-19, 11-8 Away) defeated the Athletics and then were swept by the Blue Jays and lost the series to the Yankees at home. After losing five of six games, the Mariners responded with a 5-1 win in Game 1 of the current series against the Padres. Cal Raleigh and Rowdy Tellez led the offense with two RBI apiece, while Logan Evans got the win after allowing no runs on seven hits with three strikeouts and one walk across 6.0 innings of work.

This season, the Mariners average 4.79 runs per game (9th in the MLB) on a .240/.328/.403 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Mariners’ staff has a 3.84 ERA (13th) and 1.33 WHIP (21st). Cal Raleigh leads the Mariners with a .250 batting average, 14 home runs, and 30 RBI this season.

Emerson Hancock will take the mound for the Mariners on Saturday. The 25-year-old right-hander has a 1-2 record in six starts this year with a 6.91 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in 28.2 innings.

San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres (27-16, 16-6 Home) beat the Rockies and Angels in response to a series loss to the New York Yankees. Surprisingly, the Friars lost the opening game of the series against the Seattle Mariners. In Friday’s 5-1 defeat, Stephen Kolek took the loss after allowing five runs on eight hits with four strikeouts and one walk in 5.0 innings.

This year, the Padres average 4.58 runs per game (13th in the MLB) on a .263/.331/.399 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Padres’ staff has a 3.34 ERA (6th) and 1.17 WHIP (6th). Fernando Tatis Jr. leads the Padres with a .307 batting average, 11 home runs, and 26 RBI this season.

The projected starting pitcher for the Padres is Nick Pivetta, who is 5-2 in eight starts this season, with a 3.05 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 44.1 innings.

Why the Padres will cover

• The Mariners have lost each of their last four games against NL West opponents following a win.
• The Padres have won each of their last three games against AL West opponents following a home loss.
• The Mariners have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five night games following a road win.
• The Padres have covered the run line in six of their last seven games at Petco Park against teams that held a winning record.
• The Mariners have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five road games against NL West opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Four of the Mariners’ last five games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Padres’ last nine home games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 15 of the Mariners’ last 17 road games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Padres’ last seven games.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Padres rank 3rd in the league for batting average this season (.263).
• The Padres rank 3rd in the league for opponent batting average this season (.218).
• The Mariners rank 27th in the league for triples this season (2).
• The Mariners are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and home runs this season.

Padres vs Mariners Prediction

The Mariners won eight of the previous ten H2H encounters, including six of the last seven. However, I am going with the Padres in this one because of the starting matchup. Both Nick Pivetta and Emerson Hancock struggled in their respective latest starts, but it’s clear who’s the better pitcher here, and I believe Pivetta will bounce back with a commanding display on Saturday. He already has three shutouts this season, while Hancock surrendered 12 runs in his last three starts. Back San Diego to win and cover the run line.