The Philadelphia Phillies and the Chicago Cubs meet Friday in MLB action from Wrigley Field. This will be the first installment in a three-game weekend series. Here’s a Cubs vs Phillies prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Cubs vs Phillies pick.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
Philly opened up their campaign with a series win versus the Washington Nationals, then took a sweep over the Colorado Rockies. The Phillies would then beat the Los Angeles Dodgers in a three-game series before a series loss versus the Braves. Philadelphia lost another series versus the Cardinals then took a four-game split versus the Giants. Over the weekend Philly beat the Marlins in two of three then lost their first two games versus the Mets 5-4 and 5-1. In the Tuesday defeat, the Phillies got 2.0 innings, four hits, two earned and two walks from starter Christopher Sanchez.
In the Wednesday finale versus the Mets, the Phillies had a 3-2 lead going into the bottom of the 10th inning but then gave up a pair of runs in a rough loss 4-3. Starting pitcher Zack Wheeler put up 6.0 innings with two earned runs on five hits and two walks along with nine strikeouts. Alec Bohm added three hits, while Edmundo Sosa had two hits with a run.
In the starter slot for Friday’s matchup, the Phillies will send out Taijuan Walker. This year over four starts Walker is 1-1 with a 2.29 ERA in 19.2 innings overall. Walker is 73-64 with a 4.16 ERA in 221 career games (213 starts).
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview
Over on the Cubs’ side, they split four games versus the Arizona Diamondbacks in their first set, then swept the Oakland Athletics ahead of a series win versus the San Diego Padres. Chicago would take another series against the Texas Rangers, then beat the Los Angeles Dodgers in two of three. After a series loss to the Padres last week, the Cubs took two of three in the rematch with the Diamondbacks over the weekend. Chicago eked out a Tuesday victory over the Dodgers 11-10 thanks to five runs in the first inning and a whopping 17 team hits.
In Wednesday’s matchup versus LA, the Cubs scored all their runs across the fourth and fifth innings on the way to a 7-6 victory. Pete Crow-Armstrong led the way with three hits, a homer and four RBI. Starter Matthew Boyd posted 6.0 innings with three earned runs.
As starting pitcher for Friday, Chicago will send out Colin Rea. This year so far Rea doesn’t have a decision. He’s sporting a 1.32. ERA with 12 strikeouts over five games (two starts) and 13.2 innings. In his career so far Rea is 99-78 with 229 earned runs over 460.1 innings total.
Why the Chicago Cubs will win
- The Phillies have lost each of their last seven road games against teams that held a winning record.
- The home team has won six of the Phillies’ last seven games.
- The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven road games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Cubs have covered the run line in four of their last five day games against NL East opponents.
- The Cubs have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven home games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
- The Cubs have won the first inning in three of their last four games against opponents that held a winning record.
- The Cubs have led after 5 innings in 10 of their last 11 games at Wrigley Field against National League opponents that held a winning record.
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win
- The Phillies have won each of their last six day games against NL Central opponents following a loss.
- The Cubs have lost six of their last seven home games against NL East opponents following a home win.
- The Phillies have covered the run line in 11 of their last 12 games against National League opponents after going to extra innings.
- The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven home games against NL East opponents following a home win.
- The Phillies have led after 3 innings in five of their last six games at Wrigley Field.
- The Cubs have lost the first inning in three of their last four games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
- The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last four day games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
Total Runs Facts
- Seven of the Phillies’ last eight road games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Five of the last six games between the Phillies and Cubs have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Phillies’ last nine day games at Wrigley Field.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Cubs’ last five day games at Wrigley Field.
Cubs vs Phillies Prediction
I’ll lean toward the Phillies here. Probably not touching this one, though. Walker hasn’t been too bad this season outside of a spotty outing versus the Giants on April 14. In that one Walker put up 5.0 frames with four earned on six hits and a walk in a loss. In the other two of his last three starts however, Walker has 8.2 innings with just one earned on six hits and six walks without a decision. He’s been unable to finish five innings in two of those three games, but if Walker can notch a quality start Friday Philly will be set up well.
The Phillies couldn’t close out their extra-innings one-run defeat against the Mets on Wednesday despite just about every hitter getting in on the action along the way. Philadelphia has four straight losses in the bag now (including a sweep by the Mets) but two of them were by just one run. I think they’ll be competitive Friday. That said, Chicago is coming off a solid pair of one-run wins themselves so they’ll be pretty hard to crack.