In this article, we will formulate a Braves vs Nationals prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, May 15, at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Washington Nationals Betting Preview
The Washington Nationals (18-26, 8-14 Away) went through their worst stretch of the season, during which they suffered seven consecutive defeats, but snapped it with a 5-4 win in Atlanta on Wednesday. The Nationals lost the series to the Guardians, were swept by the Cardinals, and lost the opening two games of the current series before last night’s victory. Washington came back from a 4-1 deficit to beat the Braves. Mitchell Parker pitched for 4.2 innings in a no-decision, allowing four runs on four hits with six strikeouts and two walks. Jose Ferrer was credited with the win.
This year, the Nationals average 4.09 runs per game (18th in the MLB) on a .237/.306/.377 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Nationals’ staff has a 5.42 ERA (28th) and 1.46 WHIP (26th). Nathaniel Lowe leads the Nationals with a .230 batting average, seven home runs, and 30 RBI this season.
The projected starting pitcher for the Nationals is Trevor Williams, who is 2-4 in eight starts this season, with a 5.88 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 41.1 innings.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview
The Atlanta Braves (21-22, 14-7 Home) beat the Reds, lost to the Pirates, and opened this series against the Washington Nationals with a pair of victories. The Braves had a 4-1 lead in Game 3, but the Nats scored four runs in the 7th and 8th innings to snatch a victory. Marcell Ozuna led the team with two RBI, while Bryce Elder pitched for 6.0 innings in a no-decision, allowing one run on five hits with three strikeouts and one walk. Enyel De Los Santos took the loss.
This season, the Braves average 3.95 runs per game (22nd in the MLB) on a .240/.312/.382 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Braves’ staff has a 3.78 ERA (12th) and 1.23 WHIP (12th). Austin Riley leads the Braves with a .287 batting average, eight home runs, and 26 RBI this season.
AJ Smith-Shawver will take the mound for the Braves on Thursday. The 22-year-old right-hander has a 2-2 record in six starts this year with a 2.76 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 32.2 innings.
Why the Braves will cover
- The Nationals have lost seven of their last eight games.
- The Braves have won seven of their last eight games against NL East opponents following a loss.
- The Braves have covered the run line in four of their last five games as favorites against NL East opponents following a loss.
- The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games against the Braves following a road win.
- The Braves have led after 3 innings in three of their last four home games against National League opponents.
- The Braves have led after 5 innings in each of their last four home games.
Total Runs Facts
- Six of the Braves’ last seven day games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Four of the Nationals’ last five games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Nationals’ last nine day games at Truist Park.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Braves’ last seven Thursday games at Truist Park.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Braves rank T8th in the league for runs allowed this season (169).
- The Braves rank T9th in the league for triples this season (6).
- The Nationals rank 28th in the league for runs allowed this season (238).
- The Nationals rank 27th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.266).
Braves vs Nationals Prediction
The teams have traded victories in the past couple of years, each recording five in the previous ten H2H duels. I am backing the Braves to win Game 4 because I like their start better than Washington’s. AJ Smith-Shawver allowed just five runs in his last four starts and is currently the best starter the Braves have. Trevor Williams, on the other hand, allowed 4+ runs in each of his last three starts – 13 earned runs in total. I believe he will continue to struggle on Thursday, and the Braves’ batter has a solid chance to score multiple runs off Williams early on. This time, the Nats will not come back from behind to win. Back Atlanta to win and cover the run line.