The Kansas City Royals are visiting the Houston Astros on Tuesday, May 13th at the Daikin Park in the second game of this series, with the Royals leading 1-0 wins. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Royals vs Astros Prediction. We will examine:
The Houston Astros’ recent form and player performance
The Kansas City Royals’ recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Houston Astros
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Kansas City Royals
Recent betting trends in games played between the Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros game
Houston Astros Preview
The Houston Astros have a 20-20 record this season and are sitting in third place in the AL West. The Astros have a 13-9 home record and 18-20 in over/under. They are coming off a 5-7 home defeat by the Royals, and are 3-5 in their last 8 games. Over is 6-4 in their last 10 games, and they are playing the Rangers and the Rays next.
The Astros have a .250 batting average this season, a .322 OBP, and a .376 slugging percentage. Houston’s pitching staff has a 3.53 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Jeremy Pena leads the Astros with 45 hits and a team-high 5 home runs, while Yainer Diaz leads the team in RBI with 21. Jake Meyers is the team’s best hitter, with a .298 batting average.
Framber Valdez (L) will take the mound for the Astros, and he has a 2-4 record, 3.94 ERA, and 1.19 WHIP. He has been a bit better at home with a 3.50 ERA, and he is coming off a quality start with just one earned run in 7 innings of work, in a 9-1 Houston win over Milwaukee. He has given up 2+ runs in his four starts before that, and in his previous start against the Royals this season, he gave up two runs in 8 innings of work, but the Astros lost 0-2.
Kansas City Royals Preview
The Kansas City Royals have a 25-18 record this season and are sitting in third place in the AL Central. The Royals have a 9-11 road record and are 15-27 in over/under. They are coming off a 7-5 road victory over the Astros, ending their previous two-game losing streak. Under is 10-3-1 in their last 14 road games, and they are playing the Cardinals and the Giants next.
The Royals have a .243 batting average this season, a .301 OBP, and a .361 Slugging percentage. Kansas’ pitching staff has a 3.01 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Bobby Witt Jr leads the Royals with 53 hits and is the team’s best hitter with a .319 batting average, also adding a team-high 25 RBI. Vinnie Pasquantino leads the team in home runs, with 6.
Kris Bubic (L) will take the mound for the Royals, and he has a 4-2 record, 1.69 ERA, and 1.10 WHIP. He has been slightly weaker on the road, with a 2.01 ERA. He has been red-hot lately, with 3 shutout performances in his last 4 starts, but in his previous start against the Astros this season, he gave up 4 runs in 5 innings of work, as the Royals lost 3-7.
Why the Houston Astros will win
- The Royals have lost seven of their last eight road games against AL West opponents.
- The Astros have won each of their last five games at Daikin Park following a loss.
- The Royals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five road games against AL West opponents following a win.
- The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last five home games following a loss.
Why the Kansas City Royals will win
- The Royals have won seven of their last eight games as road underdogs.
- The Astros have lost four of their last five games as favorites against American League opponents.
- The Royals have covered the run line in each of their last eight night games against the Astros following a win.
- The Astros have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine night games against the Royals following a loss.
- The Astros have trailed after 3 innings in eight of their last nine night games.
- The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six night games against American League opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Astros’ last eight games against AL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Ten of the Royals’ last 11 night games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Royals’ last 12 games as road underdogs against AL West opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the last eight games between the Royals and Astros.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Astros rank 1st in the league for hits allowed this season (279).
- The Astros rank 2nd in the league for opponent batting average this season (.216).
- The Royals rank 30th in the league for home runs this season (28).
- The Royals rank 2nd in the league for ERA this season (3.01).
Royals vs Astros Prediction
The Royals are 3-1 against the Astros this season, but the Astros are 5-3 in their last 8 overall meetings. In this Royals vs Astros Prediction, the Astros are coming as -140 home favorites. The Astros continue to be overvalued, as they have a worse record than the Royals and a pitching disadvantage. Bubic is better than Valdez this season, but he was shelled in his only start against the Astros this season, so I don’t trust either pitcher, and I see no value on either side.
Both pitchers are solid so far this season, and both teams are top-4 in the MLB in bullpen ERA, with 2.80 and 3.10. Both teams are also weaker lefties, averaging 4.2 and 3.4 runs against lefties this season, so I don’t expect a lot of runs in this game. Take the under 7.5 runs.