Nuggets vs Thunder Prediction 5/9/25 NBA Picks Today

Peter Tran

The Denver Nuggets play host to the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 3 of the Western Conference Semifinals at the Ball Arena on Friday night. Here’s a Nuggets vs Thunder Prediction. This article will include a Nuggets vs Thunder Pick.

Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview

The Oklahoma City Thunder needed to respond after dropping the series opener, and they did just that as they smashed the Nuggets by 149-106 in Game 2 on Wednesday. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team with 34 points and eight assists, Jalen Williams added 17 points with seven assists, Chet Holmgren scored 15 points with 11 rebounds and two blocks while Isaiah Hartenstein and Isaiah Joe scored 14 points each.

As a team, the Thunder shot 56 percent from the field and 16 of 36 from the 3-point line as they stormed out of the gates with 87 points in the first half. They outscored the Nuggets by 37-20 in the third quarter to lead by as many as 49 points at one stage. Gilgeous-Alexander barely missed all night as he shot 11 of 13 from the field, but it was a real team effort as the Thunder had a total of eight players finishing in double figures in scoring.

Denver Nuggets Betting Preview

Meanwhile, the Denver Nuggets must have been brimming with confidence following their win in the series opener, but they are now looking to respond after getting manhandled by the Thunder in an ugly defeat in Game 2. Russell Westbrook led the team in scoring with 19 points and five assists off the bench, Nikola Jokic added 17 points with eight rebounds and six assists, Jamal Murray scored 14 points while Aaron Gordon chipped in with 10 points.

As a team, the Nuggets shot just 37 percent from the field and 15 of 37 from the 3-point line as they got off to a nightmare start and were always fighting an uphill battle after getting outscored by 45-21 in the first quarter. Michael Porter Jr had a rough game as he shot just two of 10 from the field for his eight points, while Christian Braun shot just one of six for his three points.

Why the Denver Nuggets will win

The Nuggets have won seven of their last eight games as home underdogs against Western Conference opponents.
The Thunder have lost 15 of their last 16 playoff road games against Northwest Division opponents following a win.
The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the Thunder’s last nine games at Ball Arena.
The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven Western Conference Semifinals games as favorites following a win.

Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win

The Thunder have won 16 of their last 17 road games.
The Nuggets have lost Game 3 in 10 of their last 12 playoff series’ when tied 1-1.
The Thunder have covered the spread in six of their last seven road games against Nuggets teams that held a winning record.
The Nuggets have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five Western Conference Semifinals home games against Northwest Division opponents.

Denver Nuggets Player Facts

Nikola Jokic is the only qualified player in the league averaging at least 25.0 points, 10.0 assists and 5.0 rebounds this season.
Christian Braun ranks 1st in the league for fast break points (403) this season.

Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ranks 1st amongst qualified players for points per game (32.7) this season.
Cason Wallace ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for steals per game (1.8) this season.

Nuggets vs Thunder Prediction

The Thunder relinquished home-court advantage in the series opener, but they are now in control after making light work of the Nuggets in a dominant win in Game 2. The Thunder made it look easy from the start as they poured in 87 points in the first half to take the early lead. They just kept their foot on the gas until the margin ballooned to 49 points at one stage. The series now shifts to the Ball Arena, where the Nuggets have won three out of four games during these playoffs, but it is the Thunder who remain favorites despite being the road team.

The Nuggets looked like a shell of themselves in Game 2, so I wouldn’t expect them to play so poorly the rest of the series, especially Jokic, who was on fire before Game 2. The Nuggets are still right in the contest despite losing the last game, but they will need everyone to step up to avoid going cold against the elite defense of the Thunder. I expect a better effort from the Nuggets at home, but the Thunder is one of the best defensive teams in the league, and I think that is the difference in a closer contest here.