The Texas Rangers and the Boston Red Sox meet Thursday in MLB action from Fenway Park. This will be the finale in a three-game series. Here’s a Red Sox vs Rangers prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Red Sox vs Rangers pick.
Texas Rangers Betting Preview
The Rangers opened up the 2025 campaign by winning a set over the Red Sox, then Texas took out the Cincinnati Reds in two of three and swept the Tampa Bay Rays. After dropping series to the Chicago Cubs and the Seattle Mariners, the Rangers swept the Los Angeles Angels. Losses in series versus the Oakland Athletics (twice) and San Francisco Giants came over the next trio, then losses to Seattle in their first two weekend games. Texas managed to stop the sweep with a Sunday win, then on Tuesday versus Boston, the Rangers posted a 6-1 win to keep it going. Texas’ Nathan Eovaldi came up with 6.0 innings, one earned run, five hits, and a walk in that one, while the offense posted a whopping 16 team hits.
On Wednesday in game two, the Rangers held a brief 2-0 lead but ended up taking the loss in the end 6-4. Adolis Garcia (two RBI) and Josh Jung (two hits) each had a home run in the defeat. Starter Tyler Mahle finished with 5.0 innings, two earned, four hits, and a walk.
For starter duties on Thursday, the Rangers are sending out Jack Leiter. This year, Leiter is 2-1 with a 4.58 ERA in four starts (17.2 innings). Over his career, Leither has 13 games (10 starts) in the bag with a 2-4 record and a 7.43 ERA.
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
Over on the Red Sox’ side, they started the year out with a series loss versus the Rangers, then series wins over the Baltimore Orioles and St. Louis Cardinals. Boston would lose the next two series versus the Toronto Blue Jays and the Chicago White Sox, then take wins over the White Sox and Rays. The Red Sox lost a series versus Seattle, then beat the Guardians ahead of a set loss to Toronto. Another series defeat came over the weekend versus the Twins. On Tuesday, Boston gave up five of the six runs during the fourth inning on the way to the loss. Starting pitcher Lucas Giolito was roughed up for six earned runs on 10 hits and a walk over 3.2 innings of work in the defeat.
In Wednesday’s matchup, the Sox out-hit Texas 11-8 in their win. Wilyer Abreu had two homers, three RBI, and three hits along the way, while Alex Bregman had three RBI, three hits, two runs, and a homer. Tanner Houck lasted 4.2 frames in the starting role with six hits, two walks, and two earned runs alongside two strikeouts.
It’ll be Brayan Bello in the starter slot for the Red Sox on Thursday. This year, Bello is 2-0 with a 2.55 ERA in three starts across 17.2 innings. Bello is 30-27 with a 4.34 ERA in 74 career games (72 starts).
Why the Boston Red Sox will win
- The Rangers have lost seven of their last eight road games after playing the previous day.
- The Red Sox have won eight of their last nine day games against AL West opponents following a home win.
- The Rangers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five road games against American League opponents after playing the previous day.
- The Red Sox have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against the Rangers following a home win.
- The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in six of their last seven day games against the Rangers at Fenway Park.
- The Rangers have lost the first inning in each of their last three day games at Fenway Park.
- The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in each of their last four day games against opponents that held a losing record.
Why the Texas Rangers will win
- The Rangers have won each of their last three games as underdogs against AL East opponents following a loss.
- The Red Sox have lost six of their last eight games as home favorites against American League opponents following a home win.
- The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven day games at Fenway Park following a home win.
- The Rangers have covered the run line in each of their last four games against AL East opponents following a loss.
- The Rangers have led after 3 innings in each of their last eight games against AL East opponents.
- The Rangers have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games against AL East opponents.
- The Red Sox have lost the first inning in three of their last four games against AL West opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Rangers’ last four day games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Each of the Red Sox’s last four day games against AL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Rangers’ last four day games against AL East opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the last six day games between the Rangers and Red Sox at Fenway Park.
Red Sox vs Rangers Prediction
I’ll stay with Boston. Bello is pitching pretty well right now, even though he had a couple of shaky moments in the win over Cleveland on April 27. Bello notched 6.0 innings with three earned runs on six hits and three walks in that one. Combined over his last three starts, Bello is 2-0 with 17.2 innings, five earned, 14 hits, and seven walks. As for Leiter, he’s coming off a rough outing versus the Mariners (4.1 innings; six earned in a loss) but was pitching fairly well prior to that. Leiter had 8.1 innings with two earned runs on three hits and four walks in the previous pair.
The Red Sox got some big offensive performances in their Wednesday victory, namely from Bregman and Abreu. It was a nice win after three straight defeats for Boston, and I think they’ll keep it going Thursday.